-
本章探討了「平靜種下瘋狂的種子」的概念，認為穩定和安全感的感知會導致風險行為，最終導致不穩定。
- The chapter explores the concept of "calm planting the seeds of
crazy", arguing that a perception of stability and safety can lead
to risky behavior and ultimately instability.
-
這個概念是從金融市場的角度提出的，在金融市場中，長期繁榮和股價將繼續上漲的信念會鼓勵過度借貸和投資，將估值推升至不可持續的水平。
- This concept is presented through the lens of financial markets,
where prolonged prosperity and a belief that stock prices will
continue to rise can encourage excessive borrowing and investment,
pushing valuations to unsustainable levels.
-
作者將這種現象與海曼·明斯基的金融不穩定假說聯繫起來，該假說認為，穩定本身就是不穩定的。
- The author connects this phenomenon to Hyman Minsky's financial
instability hypothesis, which posits that stability itself is
destabilizing.
-
根據明斯基的觀點，當經濟經歷長期穩定時，人們會變得越來越樂觀，承擔更多債務，推動經濟進一步增長。
- According to Minsky, when an economy experiences extended
periods of stability, individuals become increasingly optimistic,
taking on more debt and fueling further growth.
-
這種循環可以一直持續到經濟達到脆弱的程度，任何不可預見的事件都可能引發崩潰。
- This cycle can continue until the economy reaches a point of
fragility, where any unforeseen event can trigger a collapse.
-
本章強調，沒有衰退或低迷可能會造成一種虛假的安全感，導致自滿和魯莽行為。
- The chapter emphasizes that the absence of recessions or
downturns can create a false sense of security, leading to
complacency and reckless behavior.
- 這最終為不可避免的低迷到來時更嚴重的崩潰埋下了伏筆。
- This ultimately sets the stage for a more severe crash when the
inevitable downturn occurs.
- 作者認為，過去一個世紀傳染病的顯著減少是沒有衰退的原因。
- The author argues that the absence of recessions can be
attributed to the significant decline in infectious diseases over
the past century.
-
雖然這種下降對於人類來說無疑是有益的，但它也造成了一種對大流行病不可預測性的心理脆弱性。
- While this decline is undoubtedly beneficial for humanity, it
has also created a psychological vulnerability to the
unpredictable nature of pandemics.
-
本章的結論是，穩定的幻覺可能會導致對潛在風險的危險漠視，以及對不可避免的干擾缺乏準備。
- The chapter concludes that the illusion of stability can lead to
a dangerous disregard for potential risks and a lack of
preparedness for inevitable disruptions.
-
因此，必須承認經濟和社會體系的循環性，並認識到平靜時期可能隱藏著未來動盪的種子。
- Therefore, it is essential to acknowledge the cyclical nature of
economic and social systems and recognize that periods of calmness
can harbor the seeds of future turmoil.
-
作者回顧了自己童年時期，那個時期以傳染病的持續威脅為標誌，而他這一代人由於廣泛接種疫苗而相對安全。
- The author reflects on the stark contrast between his childhood,
marked by the constant threat of contagious diseases, and the
relative safety of his generation due to widespread vaccination.
- 他認為，如果 COVID-19 在 1920
年襲擊，它只會是歷史上一個微不足道的註腳，但它在 2020
年的到來，卻正逢相對平靜的時期，在人們對病毒風險的認知上留下了不可磨滅的印記。
- He posits that if COVID-19 had struck in 1920, it would have
been a mere footnote in history, but its arrival in 2020, amid a
period of relative calm, has left an indelible mark on perceptions
of viral risk.
-
作者提出了一个發人深省的问题：過去五十年相對缺乏流行病是否無意中加劇了我們對
COVID-19 的脆弱性？
- The author raises a thought-provoking question: did the relative
absence of pandemics in the last half-century inadvertently
contribute to our vulnerability to COVID-19?
- 他認為，20
世紀成功地防止了流行病，導致了人們的麻痺大意，並相信傳染病已經成為過去，讓我們對全球流行病的現實毫無準備。
- He suggests that the success in preventing pandemics in the 20th
century led to complacency and a belief that infectious diseases
were a thing of the past, leaving us unprepared for the reality of
a global pandemic.
-
作者進一步探討了「平靜種下了瘋狂的種子」的概念，突顯了成功如何導致麻痺大意和脆弱性的諷刺。
- The author further explores the concept of "calm planting the
seeds of crazy", highlighting the irony of how success can lead to
complacency and vulnerability.
- 他將此與「對立轉化」(enantiodromia)
現象相提並論，這是榮格理論中的一個概念，認為某種東西的過度會導致其反面。
- He draws a parallel to the phenomenon of "enantiodromia", a
Jungian theory suggesting that an excess of something can give
rise to its opposite.
- 作者以 2017
年加州創紀錄的降雨量為例，這導致植被過度生長，最終在隨後的旱季中引發了毀滅性的野火。
- The author cites the example of California's record rainfall in
2017, which led to excessive vegetation growth, ultimately
resulting in devastating wildfires due to the subsequent dry
season.
-
這種在自然和人類努力中顯而易見的循環模式，突顯了承認平靜時期往往包含意外和潛在災難性結果的潛力的重要性。
- This cyclical pattern, evident in nature and human endeavors,
underscores the importance of acknowledging that periods of calm
often contain the potential for unexpected and potentially
disastrous outcomes.
-
作者總結說，樂觀和悲觀本質上會超越合理的界限，這是由人類渴望探索可能性極限的驅使。
- The author concludes by suggesting that optimism and pessimism
inherently overshoot reasonable boundaries, driven by a human
desire to explore the limits of possibility.
-
這種趨勢在經濟和市場週期中很明顯，繁榮和蕭條、泡沫和崩潰，都是由不斷追求確定頂峰的驅使，最終導致擴張過度並最終超過這些界限。
- This tendency is evident in economic and market cycles, where
booms and busts, bubbles and crashes, are fueled by the relentless
pursuit of identifying the apex, often leading to overextending
and ultimately exceeding those limits.
-
是否股票估值過高、比特幣的價值，或特斯拉的潛在增長無法透過公式解答。這些投資由市場情緒驅動，受投資者情緒、信念和有說服力的敘述影響。預測市場行為就像預測幾年後自己的心情一樣，因為敘述不斷變化且不可預測。
- The question of whether stocks are overvalued, bitcoin's worth,
or Tesla's potential growth cannot be answered through formulas.
These investments are driven by market sentiment, influenced by
investor emotions, beliefs, and persuasive narratives. Predicting
market behavior is akin to predicting one's mood years in the
future, as narratives are constantly evolving and unpredictable.
-
人性迫使投資者探索獲利機會，超過現有簡單明瞭的投資選項。因此，任何可能機會的跡象都會被調查。挑戰在於判斷市場頂峰。
- Human nature compels investors to explore opportunities for
potential gains, exceeding the availability of straightforward and
obvious investment options. Therefore, any indication of a
possible opportunity will be investigated. The challenge lies in
determining market peaks.
-
市場往往偏離理性界線，表現出過度悲觀和樂觀，這由於其固有性質而不可避免。
- Markets tend to deviate from rational boundaries, exhibiting
excessive pessimism and optimism, which are inevitable due to
their inherent nature.
-
為了了解市場潛力的全部範圍，我們必須超越邏輯數字界限，挑戰投資者對這些數字的信念。這個過程就像輪胎製造商透過駕駛輪胎直到故障來測試新輪胎的極限。
- In order to understand the full extent of market potential, we
must push beyond logical numerical boundaries and challenge
investor beliefs about those figures. This process resembles a
tire manufacturer testing a new tire's limitations by driving it
until failure.
-
市場就像輪胎製造商一樣，挑戰其極限以了解投資者的容忍度和風險偏好。這一直是這樣，而且將會繼續如此。
- Markets, like tire manufacturers, push their limits to
understand investor tolerance and risk appetite. This has always
been the case and will continue to be so.
-
對於這種現象，有兩種方法。首先，我們必須接受市場波動不一定代表故障，因為非理性是市場行為的固有特性。市場始終運作於理性範疇之外。
- There are two approaches to this phenomenon. First, we must
accept that market fluctuations are not necessarily a sign of
malfunction, as irrationality is inherent to market behavior.
Markets consistently operate beyond the realm of rationality.
-
雖然有反覆聲稱市場由於過度投機或脫離基本面而失靈，但這一直是這樣。投資者只是在尋找同儕信念和投資意願的極限。
- While there are recurring claims that markets are dysfunctional
due to excessive speculation or detachment from fundamentals, this
has always been the case. Investors are merely seeking the limits
of their peers' beliefs and willingness to invest.
-
第二種方法則是認清持續性的力量，擁抱中等回報，類似電視節目《宋飛正傳》(Seinfeld)
的理念。投資者查馬斯·帕里哈皮提亞 (Chamath Palihapitiya)
強調穩定回報的重要性，他認為以每年 15% 的適度速度複利計算 50
年，就能產生顯著的成果。
- The second approach involves recognizing the power of
consistency and embracing moderate returns, similar to the
philosophy of the television show Seinfeld. Investor Chamath
Palihapitiya emphasized the importance of steady returns,
believing that compounding at a modest 15% per year over 50 years
can yield significant results.
-
雖然可能存在更大的獲利潛力，但接受一個期望的風險水平，並被動觀察市場動態是可以接受的。雖然不是每個人都能做到這一點，但對於個人投資者來說，這是一個值得追求的策略。
- While there might be greater potential for gains, it is
acceptable to acknowledge a desired level of risk and passively
observe market dynamics. While not everyone can achieve this, it
is a strategy worth pursuing for individual investors.
# 貪婪與恐懼的循環
# The Cycle of Greed and Fear
-
這篇文章描述了由貪婪和恐懼驅使的人類行為循環模式。這個循環始於假設好消息是永久的，導致對壞消息的漠不關心、否認、恐慌，最終接受。然後這個循環隨著假設壞消息是永久的而重複，最終導致回到最初假設永久好消息的狀態。
[3]
- The text describes a cyclical pattern of human behavior driven
by greed and fear. This cycle begins with the assumption of good
news being permanent, leading to obliviousness to bad news,
denial, panic, and eventually acceptance. The cycle then repeats
with the assumption of bad news being permanent, ultimately
leading back to the initial assumption of permanent good news.
# 明斯基金融不穩定假說
# Minsky's Financial Instability Hypothesis
-
這篇文章介紹了海曼·明斯基的金融不穩定假說，該假說認為經濟穩定會滋生不穩定。該假說認為，長期的繁榮會導致樂觀情緒增強、債務過度，最終導致經濟不穩定。
[20]
- The text introduces Hyman Minsky's financial instability
hypothesis, which posits that economic stability breeds
instability. The hypothesis argues that prolonged periods of
prosperity lead to increased optimism, excessive debt, and
ultimately a destabilization of the economy.
# 穩定性不穩定的影響
# Stability's Destabilizing Effect
-
這篇文章說明了在股市中追求穩定實際上可能導致其崩潰。當投資者對市場持續增長充滿信心時，他們會從事風險行為，推高資產價格至不可持續的水平。這會造成一種情況，即使是輕微的衝擊也會引發市場崩盤。
[32]
- The text illustrates how the pursuit of stability in the stock
market can actually lead to its downfall. When investors become
confident in the market's continued growth, they engage in risky
behavior, driving up asset prices to unsustainable levels. This
creates a situation where even minor shocks can trigger a market
crash.
# 驚喜的六個特徵
# The Six Characteristics of Surprise
-
這篇文章概述了六個可能擾亂市場的驚喜特徵：信息不完整、不確定性、隨機性、機遇、時間不湊巧和誘因不足。這些因素可能會出乎意料地使已經在高估值下運作的市場不穩定，使其容易受到即使是輕微衝擊的影響。
[38]
- The text outlines six characteristics of surprise that can
disrupt markets: incomplete information, uncertainty,
randomness, chance, unfortunate timing, and poor incentives.
These factors can unexpectedly destabilize markets that are
already operating at high valuations, making them vulnerable to
even minor shocks.
# 穩定的諷刺
# The Irony of Stability
-
這篇文章強調了追求市場穩定的諷刺意味，認為這實際上使市場更容易崩潰。對穩定的信念導致風險行為和資產價格膨脹，使市場容易受到意外事件的影響。
[46]
- The text highlights the irony of pursuing market stability,
arguing that it actually makes markets more susceptible to
crashes. The belief in stability leads to risky behavior and
inflated asset prices, leaving markets vulnerable to unexpected
events.
# 歷史的先例
# The Precedent of History
-
這篇文章強調了了解歷史以避免重蹈覆轍的重要性。它認為，無視歷史模式會導致對前所未有的情況產生錯誤的認識，這會使人們更容易受到貪婪和恐懼循環的影響。
[51]
- The text emphasizes the importance of understanding history to
avoid repeating past mistakes. It argues that ignoring
historical patterns can lead to a false sense of unprecedented
circumstances, which can make people more susceptible to the
cycle of greed and fear.
# 預防流行病的意外後果
# The Unexpected Consequence of Pandemic Prevention
-
這篇文章深入探討了傳染病死亡率下降的矛盾影響，認為上個世紀流行病預防的成功無意中使世界更容易受到像
COVID-19
這樣的流行病的影響。它認為，近幾十年來缺乏流行病經驗導致了自滿和低估了其潛在影響，使社會在流行病最終出現時沒有做好準備。
[54]
- The article delves into the paradoxical impact of the decline
in infectious diseases, suggesting that the success of pandemic
prevention in the last century has inadvertently made the world
more vulnerable to pandemics like COVID-19. It argues that the
lack of experience with pandemics in recent decades has led to
complacency and underestimation of their potential impact,
making societies less prepared when one eventually emerges.
# 傳染病死亡人數急劇下降
# A Dramatic Decline in Infectious Disease Deaths
- 這篇文章強調了 1900 年至 2014
年期間美國傳染病死亡人數的顯著下降，將這種改善歸因於醫學和公共衛生的進步。傳染病死亡人數的減少雖然是一項重大成就，但也創造了一種對流行病的心理脆弱性，使它們在發生時看起來更加令人震驚和不堪重負。
[55]
- The article highlights the significant decline in infectious
disease deaths in the United States between 1900 and 2014,
attributing this improvement to advancements in medicine and
public health. The reduction in deaths from infectious diseases,
while a major achievement, has also created a psychological
vulnerability to pandemics, making them seem more shocking and
overwhelming when they occur.
# 無流行病時代的流行病反常
# The Anomaly of a Pandemic in a Pandemic-Free Era
-
這篇文章探討了近幾十年來缺乏流行病對心理的影響，認為這使社會對應對流行病的準備不足。作者將早期世代對傳染病的廣泛經驗與近幾十年來相對缺乏此類威脅進行了對比，突出了對流行病相關風險的準備和理解方面的差異。
[62]
- The article explores the psychological impact of the lack of
pandemics in recent decades, arguing that it has made societies
less prepared to handle them. The author contrasts the
widespread experience of infectious diseases in earlier
generations with the relative absence of such threats in more
recent times, highlighting the difference in preparedness and
understanding of the risks associated with pandemics.
# 自滿和低估流行病風險
# Complacency and Underestimation of Pandemic Risk
-
這篇文章認為，傳染病死亡人數的下降導致了對流行病風險的自滿和低估。它表明，這種缺乏流行病經驗使社會在心理和實際上都對應對流行病的準備不足。
[66]
- The article argues that the decline in infectious disease
deaths has led to a complacency and underestimation of the risk
of pandemics. It suggests that this lack of experience with
pandemics has made societies less prepared to handle them, both
psychologically and practically.
# 成功的悖論：平靜孕育自滿
# The Paradox of Success: Calm Breeds Complacency
-
作者以偏執狂為例，來比喻成功的悖論。偏執狂雖然能透過警惕和準備來促進成功，但也可能導致壓力，並放棄那些有助於成功的措施，最終導致下降。這種現象不僅適用於個人行為，也適用於社會對流行病等威脅的反應。
[69]
- The author uses the example of paranoia as a metaphor to
illustrate the paradoxical nature of success. While paranoia can
drive success by fostering vigilance and preparation, it can
also lead to stress and abandonment of the very measures that
contribute to success, resulting in a decline. This dynamic
applies not only to individual behavior but also to societal
responses to threats like pandemics.
# 對映論：過度的反作用力
# Enantiodromia: The Opposing Force of Excess
-
這篇文章介紹了卡爾·榮格的對映論概念，該概念認為，某事物的過度可能會導致其相反。作者以大自然為例來說明這種現象，認為某事物的豐富可能會創造導致其稀缺的條件。這個概念被應用到傳染病的衰退和隨之而來的流行病脆弱性，表明流行病預防的成功無意中創造了使流行病更有可能發生的條件。
[76]
- The article introduces Carl Jung's concept of enantiodromia,
which suggests that an excess of something can lead to its
opposite. The author uses the example of Mother Nature to
illustrate this phenomenon, arguing that the abundance of
something can create conditions that lead to its scarcity. This
concept is applied to the decline of infectious diseases and the
subsequent vulnerability to pandemics, suggesting that the
success of pandemic prevention has inadvertently created
conditions that make pandemics more likely.
# 加州野火：反直覺的循環
# California's Wildfires: A Counterintuitive Cycle
- 加州在 2010 年代中期經歷了極度乾旱，隨後在 2017
年出現破紀錄的降雨，這引發了植物生長的大規模繁榮。然而，隨後的
2018
年旱季導致枯死的植被成為加州有史以來最大規模野火的一些燃料，說明了降雨量和火災強度之間的反直覺關係。
[78]
- California experienced an extreme drought in the mid-2010s,
followed by record rainfall in 2017, which triggered a
superbloom of vegetation growth. However, the subsequent dry
year of 2018 caused the dead vegetation to become fuel for some
of the largest wildfires California had ever seen, illustrating
a counterintuitive relationship between rainfall and fire
intensity.
# 平靜的瘋狂種子：低估風險
# Calm Seeds of Crazy: Underestimating Risk
- 加州野火事件突顯了更廣泛的現象：由於 perceived
安全感而低估風險的趨勢。當事情看起來平靜時，我們經常無法預料到意外後果的可能性，這可能導致重大危險。
[84]
- The example of California's wildfires highlights a broader
phenomenon: the tendency to underestimate risk due to a
perceived sense of safety. When things appear calm, we often
fail to anticipate the potential for unexpected consequences,
leading to potential for significant dangers.
# 威爾·史密斯和丹佐·華盛頓：巔峰的警示
# Will Smith and Denzel Washington: Caution at the Top
-
丹佐·華盛頓給威爾·史密斯的建議，警告他成功的危險，強調即使在成就的巔峰也要保持謙卑和意識。
[86]
- Denzel Washington's advice to Will Smith, cautioning him about
the dangers of success, underscores the importance of
maintaining humility and awareness even at the pinnacle of
achievement.
# 超越理性：樂觀和悲觀的極限
# Overshooting Reason: The Limits of Optimism and Pessimism
-
作者認為樂觀和悲觀總是必須超越看似合理的範圍，因為發現可能的極限的唯一方法是探索這些極限之外，即使這意味著冒險進入潛在的危險領域。
[88]
- The author argues that optimism and pessimism always have to
overshoot what seems reasonable, as the only way to discover the
limits of what's possible is to explore beyond those limits,
even if it means venturing into potentially risky territory.
# 傑瑞·宋飛的哲學：擁抱不確定性
# Jerry Seinfeld's Philosophy: Embracing Uncertainty
-
傑瑞·宋飛在他最輝煌的時期結束他成功的電視節目的決定，突顯了接受不確定性以及不被對成功的極限的持續需求所驅使的重要性。
[89]
- Jerry Seinfeld's decision to end his successful TV show while
it was at its peak highlights the importance of accepting
uncertainty and not being driven by a constant need to know the
limits of success.
# 市場和對頂峰的追求：超越理智
# Markets and the Search for the Top: Beyond Sanity
-
作者認為，市場像個人一樣，在尋找頂峰的過程中經常會超越理智的界限，導致繁榮和蕭條、泡沫和崩潰的循環。這是因為人們受致富的慾望驅使，並總是願意探索潛在的機會，即使它們是有風險的。
[91]
- The author argues that markets, like individuals, often push
beyond the boundaries of sanity in their pursuit of identifying
the top, leading to cycles of booms and busts, bubbles and
crashes. This is because people are driven by a desire to get
rich and are always willing to explore potential opportunities,
even if they are risky.
# 測試極限：市場的輪胎
# Testing Limits: The Market's Tire
-
作者用一個輪胎公司測試其新輪胎極限的類比來說明，市場受找到投資者容忍度極限的慾望驅使，往往會突破理智的界限，甚至導致潛在的災難性後果。
[97]
- The author uses the analogy of a tire company testing the
limits of its new tires by running them until they blow up to
illustrate how markets, driven by a desire to find the limits of
investor tolerance, often push beyond the boundaries of sanity,
even leading to potentially disastrous consequences.
# 市場的現實：瘋狂是正常的
# Market's Reality: Crazy is Normal
-
作者認為，儘管市場經常宣佈市場失靈，但市場波動是正常的。他們認為，投資者不是非理性的，而是尋求他人信念的極限。此外，他們提倡以穩健的方式投資，重點關注長期穩定的回報，而不是追求極端的收益。
[98]
- The author argues that market fluctuations are normal, despite
frequent declarations of market dysfunction. They believe that
investors are not irrational but rather seeking the limits of
others' beliefs. Additionally, they advocate for a measured
approach to investing, focusing on steady returns over an
extended period rather than chasing extreme gains.
# 緩慢成長的力量：穩紮穩打勝過速成
# The Power of Gradual Growth: Slow and Steady Wins the Race
-
作者主張循序漸進的成長策略，而非追求高回報。他們強調複利的強大力量，說明如何透過
50 年間穩定的 15%
年化報酬，累積可觀的財富。他們認為，這種方法比追求非凡的報酬更可持續且實際。
[102]
- The author promotes a strategy of consistent growth rather
than chasing high returns. They emphasize the power of
compounding, highlighting how a consistent 15% annual return
over 50 years can lead to significant wealth accumulation. This
approach, they argue, is more sustainable and realistic than
attempting to achieve extraordinary returns.
# 『更大更快』的兩難：一個警示故事
# The Dilemma of 'Bigger and Faster': A Cautionary Tale
- 摘錄的最後一部分將焦點轉移到人類的普遍傾向 -
希望加速成功事業的成長。這可能弊大於利，因為它可能導致不可持續的擴張，或將重點放在速度而非品質。作者以開放式討論結束，建議這也是需要仔細考慮的另一個領域。
[105]
- The final section of the excerpt shifts focus to a common
human tendency - the desire to accelerate the growth of
successful endeavors. This can be detrimental, as it can lead to
unsustainable expansion or a focus on speed over quality. The
author leaves the discussion open-ended, suggesting that this is
another area where careful consideration is needed.
-
穩定和安全的時期可能會導致風險行為，最終導致不穩定，就像金融市場和疫情準備一樣。
- Periods of stability and safety can lead to risky behavior and
ultimately instability, as seen in financial markets and pandemic
preparedness.
-
金融不穩定假說認為，穩定本身可能導致不穩定，因為個人在長期平靜時期會變得越來越樂觀，並承擔更多債務。
- The financial instability hypothesis suggests that stability
itself can be destabilizing, as individuals become increasingly
optimistic and take on more debt during prolonged periods of calm.
-
傳染病的減少產生了錯誤的安全感，導致自滿和對意外干擾（如疫情）的脆弱性。
- The decline in infectious diseases has created a false sense of
security, leading to complacency and vulnerability to unexpected
disruptions like pandemics.
-
成功可能導致自滿和脆弱性，正如過去在預防疫情方面取得的成功導致對疫情準備過於自信所證明的那樣。
- Success can lead to complacency and vulnerability, as
demonstrated by the overconfidence in pandemic preparedness due to
past successes in preventing them.
-
追逐識別市場峰值通常會導致過度擴張和超過極限，導致繁榮與蕭條、泡沫與崩潰。
- The pursuit of identifying market peaks often leads to
overextending and exceeding limits, resulting in booms and busts,
bubbles and crashes.
-
市場波動是固有的，並不一定表示故障，因為非理性是市場行為的一個基本方面。
- Market fluctuations are inherent and not necessarily a sign of
malfunction, as irrationality is a fundamental aspect of market
behavior.
- 投資者一直在尋找同行信念和投資意願的極限，導致市場週期。
- Investors are constantly seeking the limits of their peers'
beliefs and willingness to invest, leading to market cycles.
-
雖然追求顯著回報很誘人，但擁抱適度回報和被動觀察市場動態可能是個人投資者成功的策略。
- While seeking significant returns is tempting, embracing
moderate returns and a passive observation of market dynamics can
be a successful strategy for individual investors.
# 根據明斯基的說法，在長時間的經濟穩定期間會發生什麼？
# According to Minsky, what happens during extended periods of
economic stability?
→ 個人會變得越來越樂觀，承擔更多債務，進一步推動經濟增長。
→ Individuals become increasingly optimistic, taking on more
debt and fueling further growth.
# 傳染病的減少如何造成脆弱性？
# How can the decline in infectious diseases create vulnerability?
→ 它創造了一種心理脆弱性，容易受到無法預測的大流行的影響。
→ It has created a psychological vulnerability to the
unpredictable nature of pandemics.
# 我們如何理解市場潛力的全部範圍？
# How can we understand the full extent of market potential?
→ 通過突破邏輯的數字界限，挑戰投資者對這些數字的信念。
→ By pushing beyond logical numerical boundaries and challenging
investor beliefs about those figures.
# 這個概念如何應用於金融市場？
# How is this concept applied to financial markets?
→
長期的繁榮和股價將繼續上漲的信念可能會鼓勵過度借貸和投資，將估值推向不可持續的水平。
→ Prolonged prosperity and a belief that stock prices will
continue to rise can encourage excessive borrowing and
investment, pushing valuations to unsustainable levels.
# 影響市場行為的一些因素有哪些？
# What are some factors that influence market behavior?
→ 市場情緒、投資者情緒、信念和有說服力的敘述。
→ Market sentiment, investor emotions, beliefs, and persuasive
narratives.
# 市場通過突破其極限測試什麼？
# What do markets test by pushing their limits?
→ 投資者的容忍度和風險偏好。
→ Investor tolerance and risk appetite.
# 什麼是 "逆反心理"？
# What is "enantiodromia"?
→ 榮格理論認為，某事物的過度會導致其相反。
→ A Jungian theory that suggests an excess of something can lead
to its opposite.
# 什麼是海曼·明斯基的金融不穩定假設？
# What is Hyman Minsky's financial instability hypothesis?
→ 它認為穩定本身是造成不穩定的因素。
→ It posits that stability itself is destabilizing.
# 沒有經濟衰退的後果是什麼？
# What is a consequence of the absence of recessions?
→ 它會造成一種虛假的安全感，導致自滿和魯莽的行為。
→ It can create a false sense of security, leading to
complacency and reckless behavior.
# 個人投資者可以接受的策略是什麼？
# What is an acceptable strategy for individual investors?
→ 承認想要的風險水平，並被動觀察市場動態。
→ Acknowledging a desired level of risk and passively observing
market dynamics.
# 什麼是必須承認的？
# What is essential to acknowledge?
→
經濟和社會體系的循環性，以及認識到平靜時期可能孕育著未來動盪的種子。
→ The cyclical nature of economic and social systems and
recognize that periods of calmness can harbor the seeds of
future turmoil.
# 接受市場波動的一種方法是什麼？
# What is one approach to accepting market fluctuations?
→ 認識到非理性是市場行為的內在特徵。
→ Recognizing that irrationality is inherent to market behavior.
# 作者關於沒有經濟衰退的論點是什麼？
# What is the author's argument regarding the absence of
recessions?
→ 這可以歸因於過去一個世紀傳染病的顯著下降。
→ It can be attributed to the significant decline in infectious
diseases over the past century.
# 作者對他童年和現在的對比的反思是什麼？
# What is the author's reflection on the contrast between his
childhood and the present?
→ 他認為，如果 1920 年爆發
COVID-19，它只會成為歷史上的一个小註腳，但它在 2020
年的出現，在一個相對平靜的時期，卻給人們留下了對病毒風險的不可磨滅的印記。
→ He posits that if COVID-19 had struck in 1920, it would have
been a mere footnote in history, but its arrival in 2020, amid a
period of relative calm, has left an indelible mark on
perceptions of viral risk.
# 確定市場峰值的難題是什麼？
# What is the challenge in determining market peaks?
→
很難預測市場行為，這就像預測自己多年後的感受一樣，因為敘事不斷發展且不可預測。
→ It is difficult to predict market behavior, which is akin to
predicting one's mood years in the future, as narratives are
constantly evolving and unpredictable.
# “平靜播下瘋狂的種子”的概念是什麼？
# What is the concept of "calm planting the seeds of crazy"?
→ 它認為，對穩定和安全的看法可能會導致風險行為，最終導致不穩定。
→ It argues that a perception of stability and safety can lead
to risky behavior and ultimately instability.
# 市場的內在特性是什麼，它會導致過度的悲觀和樂觀？
# What is the inherent nature of markets that can lead to
excessive pessimism and optimism?
→ 市場往往偏離理性的界限。
→ Markets tend to deviate from rational boundaries.
# “平靜播下瘋狂的種子”這句話強調了什麼諷刺？
# What is the irony highlighted by the phrase "calm planting the
seeds of crazy"?
→ 成功可能會導致自滿和脆弱，可能導致意想不到的問題。
→ Success can lead to complacency and vulnerability, potentially
causing unexpected problems.
# 本章的主要結論是什麼？
# What is the main conclusion of the chapter?
→
穩定感的錯覺可能會導致人們對潛在風險的危險漠視，以及缺乏對不可避免的破壞的準備。
→ The illusion of stability can lead to a dangerous disregard
for potential risks and a lack of preparedness for inevitable
disruptions.
# 理解市場波動的第二種方法是什麼？
# What is the second approach to understanding market
fluctuations?
→ 認識到一致性的力量，並擁抱適度的回報。
→ Recognizing the power of consistency and embracing moderate
returns.
# 每年 15% 的複利在 50 年後的意義何在？
# What is the significance of compounding at a modest 15% per year
over 50 years?
→ 它能產生顯著的成果。
→ It can yield significant results.
# 為什麼經濟和市場週期中常出現繁榮和蕭條、泡沫和崩盤？
# Why are booms and busts, bubbles and crashes common in economic
and market cycles?
→
因為投資者被探索潛在獲利機會的渴望所驅使，常常導致過度擴張和超出限制。
→ Because investors are driven by the desire to explore
opportunities for potential gains, often leading to
overextending and exceeding limits.