-
本章探討了「平靜種下瘋狂的種子」的概念，認為穩定和安全感的感知會導致風險行為，最終導致不穩定。
- The chapter explores the concept of "calm planting the seeds of
crazy", arguing that a perception of stability and safety can lead
to risky behavior and ultimately instability.
-
這個概念是從金融市場的角度提出的，在金融市場中，長期繁榮和股價將繼續上漲的信念會鼓勵過度借貸和投資，將估值推升至不可持續的水平。
- This concept is presented through the lens of financial markets,
where prolonged prosperity and a belief that stock prices will
continue to rise can encourage excessive borrowing and investment,
pushing valuations to unsustainable levels.
-
作者將這種現象與海曼·明斯基的金融不穩定假說聯繫起來，該假說認為，穩定本身就是不穩定的。
- The author connects this phenomenon to Hyman Minsky's financial
instability hypothesis, which posits that stability itself is
destabilizing.
-
根據明斯基的觀點，當經濟經歷長期穩定時，人們會變得越來越樂觀，承擔更多債務，推動經濟進一步增長。
- According to Minsky, when an economy experiences extended periods
of stability, individuals become increasingly optimistic, taking on
more debt and fueling further growth.
-
這種循環可以一直持續到經濟達到脆弱的程度，任何不可預見的事件都可能引發崩潰。
- This cycle can continue until the economy reaches a point of
fragility, where any unforeseen event can trigger a collapse.
-
本章強調，沒有衰退或低迷可能會造成一種虛假的安全感，導致自滿和魯莽行為。
- The chapter emphasizes that the absence of recessions or downturns
can create a false sense of security, leading to complacency and
reckless behavior.
- 這最終為不可避免的低迷到來時更嚴重的崩潰埋下了伏筆。
- This ultimately sets the stage for a more severe crash when the
inevitable downturn occurs.
- 作者認為，過去一個世紀傳染病的顯著減少是沒有衰退的原因。
- The author argues that the absence of recessions can be attributed
to the significant decline in infectious diseases over the past
century.
-
雖然這種下降對於人類來說無疑是有益的，但它也造成了一種對大流行病不可預測性的心理脆弱性。
- While this decline is undoubtedly beneficial for humanity, it has
also created a psychological vulnerability to the unpredictable
nature of pandemics.
-
本章的結論是，穩定的幻覺可能會導致對潛在風險的危險漠視，以及對不可避免的干擾缺乏準備。
- The chapter concludes that the illusion of stability can lead to a
dangerous disregard for potential risks and a lack of preparedness
for inevitable disruptions.
-
因此，必須承認經濟和社會體系的循環性，並認識到平靜時期可能隱藏著未來動盪的種子。
- Therefore, it is essential to acknowledge the cyclical nature of
economic and social systems and recognize that periods of calmness
can harbor the seeds of future turmoil.
-
作者回顧了自己童年時期，那個時期以傳染病的持續威脅為標誌，而他這一代人由於廣泛接種疫苗而相對安全。
- The author reflects on the stark contrast between his childhood,
marked by the constant threat of contagious diseases, and the
relative safety of his generation due to widespread vaccination.
- 他認為，如果 COVID-19 在 1920
年襲擊，它只會是歷史上一個微不足道的註腳，但它在 2020
年的到來，卻正逢相對平靜的時期，在人們對病毒風險的認知上留下了不可磨滅的印記。
- He posits that if COVID-19 had struck in 1920, it would have been
a mere footnote in history, but its arrival in 2020, amid a period
of relative calm, has left an indelible mark on perceptions of viral
risk.
-
作者提出了一个發人深省的问题：過去五十年相對缺乏流行病是否無意中加劇了我們對
COVID-19 的脆弱性？
- The author raises a thought-provoking question: did the relative
absence of pandemics in the last half-century inadvertently
contribute to our vulnerability to COVID-19?
- 他認為，20
世紀成功地防止了流行病，導致了人們的麻痺大意，並相信傳染病已經成為過去，讓我們對全球流行病的現實毫無準備。
- He suggests that the success in preventing pandemics in the 20th
century led to complacency and a belief that infectious diseases
were a thing of the past, leaving us unprepared for the reality of a
global pandemic.
-
作者進一步探討了「平靜種下了瘋狂的種子」的概念，突顯了成功如何導致麻痺大意和脆弱性的諷刺。
- The author further explores the concept of "calm planting the
seeds of crazy", highlighting the irony of how success can lead to
complacency and vulnerability.
- 他將此與「對立轉化」(enantiodromia)
現象相提並論，這是榮格理論中的一個概念，認為某種東西的過度會導致其反面。
- He draws a parallel to the phenomenon of "enantiodromia", a
Jungian theory suggesting that an excess of something can give rise
to its opposite.
- 作者以 2017
年加州創紀錄的降雨量為例，這導致植被過度生長，最終在隨後的旱季中引發了毀滅性的野火。
- The author cites the example of California's record rainfall in
2017, which led to excessive vegetation growth, ultimately resulting
in devastating wildfires due to the subsequent dry season.
-
這種在自然和人類努力中顯而易見的循環模式，突顯了承認平靜時期往往包含意外和潛在災難性結果的潛力的重要性。
- This cyclical pattern, evident in nature and human endeavors,
underscores the importance of acknowledging that periods of calm
often contain the potential for unexpected and potentially
disastrous outcomes.
-
作者總結說，樂觀和悲觀本質上會超越合理的界限，這是由人類渴望探索可能性極限的驅使。
- The author concludes by suggesting that optimism and pessimism
inherently overshoot reasonable boundaries, driven by a human desire
to explore the limits of possibility.
-
這種趨勢在經濟和市場週期中很明顯，繁榮和蕭條、泡沫和崩潰，都是由不斷追求確定頂峰的驅使，最終導致擴張過度並最終超過這些界限。
- This tendency is evident in economic and market cycles, where
booms and busts, bubbles and crashes, are fueled by the relentless
pursuit of identifying the apex, often leading to overextending and
ultimately exceeding those limits.
-
是否股票估值過高、比特幣的價值，或特斯拉的潛在增長無法透過公式解答。這些投資由市場情緒驅動，受投資者情緒、信念和有說服力的敘述影響。預測市場行為就像預測幾年後自己的心情一樣，因為敘述不斷變化且不可預測。
- The question of whether stocks are overvalued, bitcoin's worth, or
Tesla's potential growth cannot be answered through formulas. These
investments are driven by market sentiment, influenced by investor
emotions, beliefs, and persuasive narratives. Predicting market
behavior is akin to predicting one's mood years in the future, as
narratives are constantly evolving and unpredictable.
-
人性迫使投資者探索獲利機會，超過現有簡單明瞭的投資選項。因此，任何可能機會的跡象都會被調查。挑戰在於判斷市場頂峰。
- Human nature compels investors to explore opportunities for
potential gains, exceeding the availability of straightforward and
obvious investment options. Therefore, any indication of a possible
opportunity will be investigated. The challenge lies in determining
market peaks.
-
市場往往偏離理性界線，表現出過度悲觀和樂觀，這由於其固有性質而不可避免。
- Markets tend to deviate from rational boundaries, exhibiting
excessive pessimism and optimism, which are inevitable due to their
inherent nature.
-
為了了解市場潛力的全部範圍，我們必須超越邏輯數字界限，挑戰投資者對這些數字的信念。這個過程就像輪胎製造商透過駕駛輪胎直到故障來測試新輪胎的極限。
- In order to understand the full extent of market potential, we
must push beyond logical numerical boundaries and challenge investor
beliefs about those figures. This process resembles a tire
manufacturer testing a new tire's limitations by driving it until
failure.
-
市場就像輪胎製造商一樣，挑戰其極限以了解投資者的容忍度和風險偏好。這一直是這樣，而且將會繼續如此。
- Markets, like tire manufacturers, push their limits to understand
investor tolerance and risk appetite. This has always been the case
and will continue to be so.
-
對於這種現象，有兩種方法。首先，我們必須接受市場波動不一定代表故障，因為非理性是市場行為的固有特性。市場始終運作於理性範疇之外。
- There are two approaches to this phenomenon. First, we must accept
that market fluctuations are not necessarily a sign of malfunction,
as irrationality is inherent to market behavior. Markets
consistently operate beyond the realm of rationality.
-
雖然有反覆聲稱市場由於過度投機或脫離基本面而失靈，但這一直是這樣。投資者只是在尋找同儕信念和投資意願的極限。
- While there are recurring claims that markets are dysfunctional
due to excessive speculation or detachment from fundamentals, this
has always been the case. Investors are merely seeking the limits of
their peers' beliefs and willingness to invest.
-
第二種方法則是認清持續性的力量，擁抱中等回報，類似電視節目《宋飛正傳》(Seinfeld)
的理念。投資者查馬斯·帕里哈皮提亞 (Chamath Palihapitiya)
強調穩定回報的重要性，他認為以每年 15% 的適度速度複利計算 50
年，就能產生顯著的成果。
- The second approach involves recognizing the power of consistency
and embracing moderate returns, similar to the philosophy of the
television show Seinfeld. Investor Chamath Palihapitiya emphasized
the importance of steady returns, believing that compounding at a
modest 15% per year over 50 years can yield significant results.
-
雖然可能存在更大的獲利潛力，但接受一個期望的風險水平，並被動觀察市場動態是可以接受的。雖然不是每個人都能做到這一點，但對於個人投資者來說，這是一個值得追求的策略。
- While there might be greater potential for gains, it is acceptable
to acknowledge a desired level of risk and passively observe market
dynamics. While not everyone can achieve this, it is a strategy
worth pursuing for individual investors.
# 貪婪與恐懼的循環
# The Cycle of Greed and Fear
-
這篇文章描述了由貪婪和恐懼驅使的人類行為循環模式。這個循環始於假設好消息是永久的，導致對壞消息的漠不關心、否認、恐慌，最終接受。然後這個循環隨著假設壞消息是永久的而重複，最終導致回到最初假設永久好消息的狀態。
[3]
- The text describes a cyclical pattern of human behavior driven
by greed and fear. This cycle begins with the assumption of good
news being permanent, leading to obliviousness to bad news,
denial, panic, and eventually acceptance. The cycle then repeats
with the assumption of bad news being permanent, ultimately
leading back to the initial assumption of permanent good news.
# 明斯基金融不穩定假說
# Minsky's Financial Instability Hypothesis
-
這篇文章介紹了海曼·明斯基的金融不穩定假說，該假說認為經濟穩定會滋生不穩定。該假說認為，長期的繁榮會導致樂觀情緒增強、債務過度，最終導致經濟不穩定。
[20]
- The text introduces Hyman Minsky's financial instability
hypothesis, which posits that economic stability breeds
instability. The hypothesis argues that prolonged periods of
prosperity lead to increased optimism, excessive debt, and
ultimately a destabilization of the economy.
# 穩定性不穩定的影響
# Stability's Destabilizing Effect
-
這篇文章說明了在股市中追求穩定實際上可能導致其崩潰。當投資者對市場持續增長充滿信心時，他們會從事風險行為，推高資產價格至不可持續的水平。這會造成一種情況，即使是輕微的衝擊也會引發市場崩盤。
[32]
- The text illustrates how the pursuit of stability in the stock
market can actually lead to its downfall. When investors become
confident in the market's continued growth, they engage in risky
behavior, driving up asset prices to unsustainable levels. This
creates a situation where even minor shocks can trigger a market
crash.
# 驚喜的六個特徵
# The Six Characteristics of Surprise
-
這篇文章概述了六個可能擾亂市場的驚喜特徵：信息不完整、不確定性、隨機性、機遇、時間不湊巧和誘因不足。這些因素可能會出乎意料地使已經在高估值下運作的市場不穩定，使其容易受到即使是輕微衝擊的影響。
[38]
- The text outlines six characteristics of surprise that can
disrupt markets: incomplete information, uncertainty, randomness,
chance, unfortunate timing, and poor incentives. These factors can
unexpectedly destabilize markets that are already operating at
high valuations, making them vulnerable to even minor shocks.
# 穩定的諷刺
# The Irony of Stability
-
這篇文章強調了追求市場穩定的諷刺意味，認為這實際上使市場更容易崩潰。對穩定的信念導致風險行為和資產價格膨脹，使市場容易受到意外事件的影響。
[46]
- The text highlights the irony of pursuing market stability,
arguing that it actually makes markets more susceptible to
crashes. The belief in stability leads to risky behavior and
inflated asset prices, leaving markets vulnerable to unexpected
events.
# 歷史的先例
# The Precedent of History
-
這篇文章強調了了解歷史以避免重蹈覆轍的重要性。它認為，無視歷史模式會導致對前所未有的情況產生錯誤的認識，這會使人們更容易受到貪婪和恐懼循環的影響。
[51]
- The text emphasizes the importance of understanding history to
avoid repeating past mistakes. It argues that ignoring historical
patterns can lead to a false sense of unprecedented circumstances,
which can make people more susceptible to the cycle of greed and
fear.
# 預防流行病的意外後果
# The Unexpected Consequence of Pandemic Prevention
-
這篇文章深入探討了傳染病死亡率下降的矛盾影響，認為上個世紀流行病預防的成功無意中使世界更容易受到像
COVID-19
這樣的流行病的影響。它認為，近幾十年來缺乏流行病經驗導致了自滿和低估了其潛在影響，使社會在流行病最終出現時沒有做好準備。
[54]
- The article delves into the paradoxical impact of the decline in
infectious diseases, suggesting that the success of pandemic
prevention in the last century has inadvertently made the world
more vulnerable to pandemics like COVID-19. It argues that the
lack of experience with pandemics in recent decades has led to
complacency and underestimation of their potential impact, making
societies less prepared when one eventually emerges.
# 傳染病死亡人數急劇下降
# A Dramatic Decline in Infectious Disease Deaths
- 這篇文章強調了 1900 年至 2014
年期間美國傳染病死亡人數的顯著下降，將這種改善歸因於醫學和公共衛生的進步。傳染病死亡人數的減少雖然是一項重大成就，但也創造了一種對流行病的心理脆弱性，使它們在發生時看起來更加令人震驚和不堪重負。
[55]
- The article highlights the significant decline in infectious
disease deaths in the United States between 1900 and 2014,
attributing this improvement to advancements in medicine and
public health. The reduction in deaths from infectious diseases,
while a major achievement, has also created a psychological
vulnerability to pandemics, making them seem more shocking and
overwhelming when they occur.
# 無流行病時代的流行病反常
# The Anomaly of a Pandemic in a Pandemic-Free Era
-
這篇文章探討了近幾十年來缺乏流行病對心理的影響，認為這使社會對應對流行病的準備不足。作者將早期世代對傳染病的廣泛經驗與近幾十年來相對缺乏此類威脅進行了對比，突出了對流行病相關風險的準備和理解方面的差異。
[62]
- The article explores the psychological impact of the lack of
pandemics in recent decades, arguing that it has made societies
less prepared to handle them. The author contrasts the widespread
experience of infectious diseases in earlier generations with the
relative absence of such threats in more recent times,
highlighting the difference in preparedness and understanding of
the risks associated with pandemics.
# 自滿和低估流行病風險
# Complacency and Underestimation of Pandemic Risk
-
這篇文章認為，傳染病死亡人數的下降導致了對流行病風險的自滿和低估。它表明，這種缺乏流行病經驗使社會在心理和實際上都對應對流行病的準備不足。
[66]
- The article argues that the decline in infectious disease deaths
has led to a complacency and underestimation of the risk of
pandemics. It suggests that this lack of experience with pandemics
has made societies less prepared to handle them, both
psychologically and practically.
# 成功的悖論：平靜孕育自滿
# The Paradox of Success: Calm Breeds Complacency
-
作者以偏執狂為例，來比喻成功的悖論。偏執狂雖然能透過警惕和準備來促進成功，但也可能導致壓力，並放棄那些有助於成功的措施，最終導致下降。這種現象不僅適用於個人行為，也適用於社會對流行病等威脅的反應。
[69]
- The author uses the example of paranoia as a metaphor to
illustrate the paradoxical nature of success. While paranoia can
drive success by fostering vigilance and preparation, it can also
lead to stress and abandonment of the very measures that
contribute to success, resulting in a decline. This dynamic
applies not only to individual behavior but also to societal
responses to threats like pandemics.
# 對映論：過度的反作用力
# Enantiodromia: The Opposing Force of Excess
-
這篇文章介紹了卡爾·榮格的對映論概念，該概念認為，某事物的過度可能會導致其相反。作者以大自然為例來說明這種現象，認為某事物的豐富可能會創造導致其稀缺的條件。這個概念被應用到傳染病的衰退和隨之而來的流行病脆弱性，表明流行病預防的成功無意中創造了使流行病更有可能發生的條件。
[76]
- The article introduces Carl Jung's concept of enantiodromia,
which suggests that an excess of something can lead to its
opposite. The author uses the example of Mother Nature to
illustrate this phenomenon, arguing that the abundance of
something can create conditions that lead to its scarcity. This
concept is applied to the decline of infectious diseases and the
subsequent vulnerability to pandemics, suggesting that the success
of pandemic prevention has inadvertently created conditions that
make pandemics more likely.
# 加州野火：反直覺的循環
# California's Wildfires: A Counterintuitive Cycle
- 加州在 2010 年代中期經歷了極度乾旱，隨後在 2017
年出現破紀錄的降雨，這引發了植物生長的大規模繁榮。然而，隨後的
2018
年旱季導致枯死的植被成為加州有史以來最大規模野火的一些燃料，說明了降雨量和火災強度之間的反直覺關係。
[78]
- California experienced an extreme drought in the mid-2010s,
followed by record rainfall in 2017, which triggered a superbloom
of vegetation growth. However, the subsequent dry year of 2018
caused the dead vegetation to become fuel for some of the largest
wildfires California had ever seen, illustrating a
counterintuitive relationship between rainfall and fire intensity.
# 平靜的瘋狂種子：低估風險
# Calm Seeds of Crazy: Underestimating Risk
- 加州野火事件突顯了更廣泛的現象：由於 perceived
安全感而低估風險的趨勢。當事情看起來平靜時，我們經常無法預料到意外後果的可能性，這可能導致重大危險。
[84]
- The example of California's wildfires highlights a broader
phenomenon: the tendency to underestimate risk due to a perceived
sense of safety. When things appear calm, we often fail to
anticipate the potential for unexpected consequences, leading to
potential for significant dangers.
# 威爾·史密斯和丹佐·華盛頓：巔峰的警示
# Will Smith and Denzel Washington: Caution at the Top
-
丹佐·華盛頓給威爾·史密斯的建議，警告他成功的危險，強調即使在成就的巔峰也要保持謙卑和意識。
[86]
- Denzel Washington's advice to Will Smith, cautioning him about
the dangers of success, underscores the importance of maintaining
humility and awareness even at the pinnacle of achievement.
# 超越理性：樂觀和悲觀的極限
# Overshooting Reason: The Limits of Optimism and Pessimism
-
作者認為樂觀和悲觀總是必須超越看似合理的範圍，因為發現可能的極限的唯一方法是探索這些極限之外，即使這意味著冒險進入潛在的危險領域。
[88]
- The author argues that optimism and pessimism always have to
overshoot what seems reasonable, as the only way to discover the
limits of what's possible is to explore beyond those limits, even
if it means venturing into potentially risky territory.
# 傑瑞·宋飛的哲學：擁抱不確定性
# Jerry Seinfeld's Philosophy: Embracing Uncertainty
-
傑瑞·宋飛在他最輝煌的時期結束他成功的電視節目的決定，突顯了接受不確定性以及不被對成功的極限的持續需求所驅使的重要性。
[89]
- Jerry Seinfeld's decision to end his successful TV show while it
was at its peak highlights the importance of accepting uncertainty
and not being driven by a constant need to know the limits of
success.
# 市場和對頂峰的追求：超越理智
# Markets and the Search for the Top: Beyond Sanity
-
作者認為，市場像個人一樣，在尋找頂峰的過程中經常會超越理智的界限，導致繁榮和蕭條、泡沫和崩潰的循環。這是因為人們受致富的慾望驅使，並總是願意探索潛在的機會，即使它們是有風險的。
[91]
- The author argues that markets, like individuals, often push
beyond the boundaries of sanity in their pursuit of identifying
the top, leading to cycles of booms and busts, bubbles and
crashes. This is because people are driven by a desire to get rich
and are always willing to explore potential opportunities, even if
they are risky.
# 測試極限：市場的輪胎
# Testing Limits: The Market's Tire
-
作者用一個輪胎公司測試其新輪胎極限的類比來說明，市場受找到投資者容忍度極限的慾望驅使，往往會突破理智的界限，甚至導致潛在的災難性後果。
[97]
- The author uses the analogy of a tire company testing the limits
of its new tires by running them until they blow up to illustrate
how markets, driven by a desire to find the limits of investor
tolerance, often push beyond the boundaries of sanity, even
leading to potentially disastrous consequences.
# 市場的現實：瘋狂是正常的
# Market's Reality: Crazy is Normal
-
作者認為，儘管市場經常宣佈市場失靈，但市場波動是正常的。他們認為，投資者不是非理性的，而是尋求他人信念的極限。此外，他們提倡以穩健的方式投資，重點關注長期穩定的回報，而不是追求極端的收益。
[98]
- The author argues that market fluctuations are normal, despite
frequent declarations of market dysfunction. They believe that
investors are not irrational but rather seeking the limits of
others' beliefs. Additionally, they advocate for a measured
approach to investing, focusing on steady returns over an extended
period rather than chasing extreme gains.
# 緩慢成長的力量：穩紮穩打勝過速成
# The Power of Gradual Growth: Slow and Steady Wins the Race
-
作者主張循序漸進的成長策略，而非追求高回報。他們強調複利的強大力量，說明如何透過
50 年間穩定的 15%
年化報酬，累積可觀的財富。他們認為，這種方法比追求非凡的報酬更可持續且實際。
[102]
- The author promotes a strategy of consistent growth rather than
chasing high returns. They emphasize the power of compounding,
highlighting how a consistent 15% annual return over 50 years can
lead to significant wealth accumulation. This approach, they
argue, is more sustainable and realistic than attempting to
achieve extraordinary returns.
# 『更大更快』的兩難：一個警示故事
# The Dilemma of 'Bigger and Faster': A Cautionary Tale
- 摘錄的最後一部分將焦點轉移到人類的普遍傾向 -
希望加速成功事業的成長。這可能弊大於利，因為它可能導致不可持續的擴張，或將重點放在速度而非品質。作者以開放式討論結束，建議這也是需要仔細考慮的另一個領域。
[105]
- The final section of the excerpt shifts focus to a common human
tendency - the desire to accelerate the growth of successful
endeavors. This can be detrimental, as it can lead to
unsustainable expansion or a focus on speed over quality. The
author leaves the discussion open-ended, suggesting that this is
another area where careful consideration is needed.
-
穩定和安全的時期可能會導致風險行為，最終導致不穩定，就像金融市場和疫情準備一樣。
- Periods of stability and safety can lead to risky behavior and
ultimately instability, as seen in financial markets and pandemic
preparedness.
-
金融不穩定假說認為，穩定本身可能導致不穩定，因為個人在長期平靜時期會變得越來越樂觀，並承擔更多債務。
- The financial instability hypothesis suggests that stability
itself can be destabilizing, as individuals become increasingly
optimistic and take on more debt during prolonged periods of calm.
-
傳染病的減少產生了錯誤的安全感，導致自滿和對意外干擾（如疫情）的脆弱性。
- The decline in infectious diseases has created a false sense of
security, leading to complacency and vulnerability to unexpected
disruptions like pandemics.
-
成功可能導致自滿和脆弱性，正如過去在預防疫情方面取得的成功導致對疫情準備過於自信所證明的那樣。
- Success can lead to complacency and vulnerability, as demonstrated
by the overconfidence in pandemic preparedness due to past successes
in preventing them.
-
追逐識別市場峰值通常會導致過度擴張和超過極限，導致繁榮與蕭條、泡沫與崩潰。
- The pursuit of identifying market peaks often leads to
overextending and exceeding limits, resulting in booms and busts,
bubbles and crashes.
-
市場波動是固有的，並不一定表示故障，因為非理性是市場行為的一個基本方面。
- Market fluctuations are inherent and not necessarily a sign of
malfunction, as irrationality is a fundamental aspect of market
behavior.
- 投資者一直在尋找同行信念和投資意願的極限，導致市場週期。
- Investors are constantly seeking the limits of their peers'
beliefs and willingness to invest, leading to market cycles.
-
雖然追求顯著回報很誘人，但擁抱適度回報和被動觀察市場動態可能是個人投資者成功的策略。
- While seeking significant returns is tempting, embracing moderate
returns and a passive observation of market dynamics can be a
successful strategy for individual investors.
- 平靜播下了瘋狂的種子，一如往常
[0]
- Calm Plants the Seeds of Crazy, Same as Ever
- 平靜播下了瘋狂的種子
[0]
- Calm Plants the Seeds of Crazy
- 瘋狂不代表破碎。瘋狂是常態；超越瘋狂的極限才是常態。
[2]
- Crazy doesn’t mean broken. Crazy is normal; beyond the point of
crazy is normal.
- 穩定會造成不穩定。
[0]
- Stability is destabilizing.
- 或者，換句話說：平靜播下了瘋狂的種子。總是如此，永遠如此。
[17]
- Or, put another way: Calm plants the seeds of crazy. Always has,
always will.
-
「當你沒有接觸歷史時，每件事都感覺前所未有。」作家凱莉·海斯曾寫道。
[51]
- “Everything feels unprecedented when you haven’t engaged with
history,” writer Kelly Hayes once wrote.
- 這是一個非常重要的觀念。
[0]
- It’s such an important idea.
-
幾乎沒有什麼能將我們與早期時代的人類區分開來，除了疾病對我們的影響要小得多......如果我們現代人以我們工業化前時代的祖先所經歷的死亡率生活一年，我們將會陷入社會性震驚。（丹·卡林）
[54]
- Pretty much nothing separates us from human beings in earlier eras
than how much less disease affects us. . . . If we moderns lived for
one year with the sort of death rates our pre-industrial age
ancestors perpetually lived with, we’d be in societal shock. (Dan
Carlin)
-
總體而言，現代生活與以往一樣安全。而過去一個世紀所有改善的成果都來自於傳染病的減少。1900
年，大約每 10 萬名美國人中就有 800 人死於傳染病。到了 2014
年，這個數字下降到每 10 萬人中 46 人，下降了 94%。
[55]
- Modern life in general is about as safe as it’s ever been. And
effectively all the improvement over the last century has come from
a decline in infectious disease. In 1900 roughly eight hundred per
one hundred thousand Americans died each year from infectious
disease. By 2014 that was forty-six per one hundred thousand—a 94
percent decline.
- 這種下降可能是人類史上發生的最佳事件。
[56]
- This decline is probably the best thing ever to happen to
humanity.
- 在這個句子後面加上「但是」就過於勉強了。這完全是一件好事。
[57]
- To follow that sentence with “but” is a step too far. It’s an
entirely good thing.
-
傳染病死亡人數的下降讓世界對傳染病的處理能力下降了——也許在醫學上不是，但在心理上絕對是。一百年前，死亡是生活中的悲劇但預期的一部分，而現在它已成為現代生活中令人悲痛且不可想像的一部分——這的確是
COVID-19 大流行如此令人震驚和不堪負荷的原因。
[59]
- The decline in deaths from infectious diseases has made the world
less equipped to handle them—maybe not medically, but certainly
psychologically. What was a tragic but expected part of life a
hundred years ago is now a tragic and inconceivable part of modern
life—which is indeed what made the COVID-19 pandemic so shocking and
overwhelming.
-
將這與我這一代相比——我們在出生後幾週內就接種了六種疫苗——就像我們生活在不同的世界裡。我無法想像兩代人前的生活常態。
[62]
- Compare this to my generation—who benefit from a half dozen
vaccines within weeks of birth—and it’s like we live in separate
worlds. I can’t fathom what was normal two generations ago.
- 過去 50 年來沒有出現大流行，是否讓世界更容易受到 COVID-19
的影響？傳染病死亡人數的下降是否讓我們低估了它在現代社會發生的可能性？
[65]
- Did a lack of pandemics over the last fifty years make the world
more vulnerable to COVID-19? Did the decline of infectious disease
death make us underestimate the odds that it could happen in modern
times?
-
讓新冠肺炎如此危險的原因之一，是我們在上個世紀非常擅長預防大流行病，因此
2020 年以前很少有人會認為傳染病會影響他們的生活。很難理解。
[66]
- Part of what made COVID dangerous is that we got so good at
preventing pandemics in the last century that few people before 2020
assumed an infectious disease would ever impact their lives. It was
hard to comprehend.
-
流行病學家多年來一直警告說，類似新冠肺炎的事情可能會發生，但他們的警告大多石沉大海，因為大眾認為大流行病只是歷史書中和世界其他地方發生的事件。
[67]
- Epidemiologists had been warning something like COVID could happen
for years—but mostly to deaf ears and a public that assumed
pandemics were something that happened only in history books and
other parts of the world.
-
「當公共衛生部門做好自己的工作時，它就成為了預算削減的目標，」全國衛生官員協會執行長勞里·弗里曼
(Lori Freeman) 在 2020 年表示。
[68]
- “As public health did its job, it became a target” of budget cuts,
Lori Freeman, CEO of the National Association of Health Officials,
said in 2020.
- 平靜種下了瘋狂的種子。
[0]
- Calm planted the seeds of crazy.
-
在奧斯卡頒獎典禮上掌摑克里斯·洛克後，威爾·史密斯轉向丹佐·華盛頓尋求建議。華盛頓說：「在你最輝煌的時刻，要小心。因為那就是惡魔向你招手的時候。」
[86]
- After slapping Chris Rock on stage at the Oscars, Will Smith
turned to Denzel Washington for advice. Washington said, “At your
highest moment, be careful. That’s when the devil comes for you.”
-
最後談談為什麼事情有失控的趨勢。原因在於樂觀和悲觀總是必須超過看似合理的範圍，因為發現可能性的極限的唯一方法，就是稍微超出這些極限。
[88]
- A final word about why things have a tendency of getting out of
hand. It’s that optimism and pessimism always have to overshoot what
seems reasonable, because the only way to discover the limits of
what’s possible is to venture a little way past those limits.
- 傑瑞·宋飛 (Jerry Seinfeld)
曾經擁有全美收視率最高的電視節目。然後他退出。
[89]
- Jerry Seinfeld had the most popular show on TV. Then he quit.
-
如果你想知道為什麼經濟和市場有很長的歷史會超過理智的界限，從繁榮到蕭條、從泡沫到崩潰，這是因為很少有人擁有宋飛的心態。我們堅持要了解頂峰在哪裡，而找到它的唯一方法就是不斷推進，直到我們走得太遠，然後我們才能回頭說：「啊，我想那就是頂峰了。」
[91]
- If you want to know why there’s a long history of economies and
markets blowing past the boundaries of sanity, bouncing from boom to
bust, bubble to crash, it’s because so few people have Seinfeld’s
mentality. We insist on knowing where the top is, and the only way
to find it is to keep pushing until we’ve gone too far, when we can
look back and say, “Ah, I guess that was the top.”
-
了解市場已耗盡所有潛在機會的唯一方法——找到頂峰的唯一方法——就是將它們推向不僅數字不再有意義的點，還要超越人們對這些數字的信念。
[90]
- The only way to know we’ve exhausted all potential opportunity
from markets—the only way to identify the top—is to push them not
only past the point where the numbers stop making sense, but beyond
the stories people believe about those numbers.
-
當一家輪胎公司研發出新輪胎，想了解它的極限，過程很簡單。他們把它裝在車上，一直開到它爆胎為止。市場也一樣，渴望知道其他投資者能承受的極限，也會做同樣的事情。
[97]
- When a tire company develops a new tire and wants to know its
limitations, the process is simple. They put it on a car and run it
until it blows up. Markets, desperate to know the limits of what
other investors can endure, do the same thing.
-
每隔幾年，就會有人宣稱市場不再運作了——說市場都是投機行為，或是脫離了基本面。但一直以來都是這樣。人們並沒有失去理智，他們只是在尋找其他投資者願意相信的界限。
[101]
- Every few years there seems to be a declaration that markets don’t
work anymore—that they’re all speculation or detached from
fundamentals. But it’s always been that way. People haven’t lost
their minds; they’re just searching for the boundaries of what other
investors are willing to believe.
- 我真的很希望每年都能以 15%
的速度複利成長。因為如果我能做到這一點，持續五十年，那將是巨大的成果。只要慢慢地、穩定地應對困難的挑戰。
[103]
- I would really love to just compound at fifteen percent per year.
Because if I can do that for fifty years that’s just enormous. Just
slow and steady against hard problems.
-
也許外面還有更多潛力，但說「你知道嗎，我很滿意目前的風險程度，我很樂意只是看著這場遊戲進行下去」也很好。不是每個人都能做到這一點——而且市場平均而言永遠無法做到這一點——但我們中更多的人應該嘗試。
[104]
- Maybe there’s more potential out there, but it’s fine to say, “You
know what, I’m pretty happy with this level of risk and I’m fine
just watching this game play out.” Not everyone can do it—and
markets on average can never do it—but more of us should try.
# anomaly
- /əˈnɑː.mə.li/
- uh-nam-uh-lee
- 異常
- n.
- The sudden increase in sales was an *anomaly* that we couldn't
explain.
- 銷售額突然增加是一個我們無法解釋的異常現象。
# asset
- /ˈæs.et/
- as-et
- 資產
- n.
- Real estate is a good *asset* to have in your portfolio.
- 房地產是投資組合中的一項好資產。
# complacency
- /kəmˈpleɪ.sən.si/
- kum-play-sen-see
- 自滿
- n.
- The *complacency* of the government led to a lack of preparedness
for the crisis.
- 政府的自滿導致缺乏應對危機的準備。
# compound
- /ˈkɑːm.paʊnd/
- kom-pownd
- 複利
- v.
- I will try to *compound* my investment.
- 我將嘗試讓我的投資產生複利。
# conceive
- /kənˈsiːv/
- kon-seev
- 想像
- v.
- I can't *conceive* of a world without music.
- 我無法想像一個沒有音樂的世界。
# consequence
- /ˈkɒn.sɪ.kwəns/
- kon-si-kwens
- 後果
- n.
- The *consequence* of his actions was a prison sentence.
- 他行為的後果是監禁。
# crazy
- /ˈkreɪ.zi/
- krey-zee
- 瘋狂
- adj.
- The stock market is *crazy* right now.
- 股市現在很瘋狂。
# cycle
- /ˈsaɪ.kəl/
- sahy-kul
- 週期
- n.
- The life cycle of a butterfly is fascinating.
- 蝴蝶的生命週期很迷人。
# decline
- /dɪˈklaɪn/
- dih-klayn
- 下降
- n.
- The *decline* in the number of students enrolled in the program is
concerning.
- 該計劃註冊學生人數下降令人擔憂。
# destabilizing
- /ˌdiːˈsteɪbəlaɪzɪŋ/
- dee-stey-buh-lahy-zing
- 不穩定
- adj.
- The new policy is having a *destabilizing* effect on the economy.
- 新政策對經濟產生了不穩定的影響。
# drought
- /draʊt/
- drowt
- 乾旱
- n.
- The *drought* lasted for years.
- 乾旱持續了好幾年。
# enantiodromia
- /ˌɛnæn.ti.oʊˈdroʊ.mi.ə/
- en-an-tee-oh-droh-mee-uh
- 反轉
- n.
- The concept of *enantiodromia* is interesting.
- 反轉的概念很有趣。
# endure
- /ɪnˈdʊər/
- en-door
- 忍受
- v.
- It is hard to *endure* the pain of losing money in the market.
- 很難忍受在市場上虧錢的痛苦。
# epidemiologists
- /ˌɛpɪˌdiːmiˈɒl.ə.dʒɪsts/
- eh-pih-dee-mee-ol-uh-jists
- 流行病學家
- n.
- *Epidemiologists* are concerned about the potential for a new wave
of infections.
- 流行病學家擔心可能會有新一波的感染。
# exceed
- /ɪkˈsiːd/
- ik-seed
- 超過
- v.
- The number of applicants *exceeded* the available positions.
- 申請人數超過了可提供的職位。
# excess
- /ˈɛk.ses/
- ek-ses
- 過剩
- n.
- An *excess* of anything can be bad.
- 任何事物過剩都可能不好。
# exhaust
- /ɪɡˈzɔːst/
- ig-zost
- 耗盡
- v.
- We need to *exhaust* all possible options before making a
decision.
- 在做出決定之前，我們需要耗盡所有可能的選項。
# fear
- /fɪər/
- feear
- 恐懼
- n.
- Fear can be a powerful motivator.
- 恐懼可能是一個強大的驅動力。
# fundamentals
- /ˌfʌn.dəˈmen.təlz/
- fun-duh-men-tuhls
- 基本面
- n.
- The *fundamentals* of the company are strong.
- 該公司的基本面很強。
# gauntlet
- /ˈɡɔːnt.lɪt/
- gawn-tlit
- 考驗
- n.
- Running the *gauntlet* of exams was a stressful experience for the
students.
- 對學生來說，經歷考試的考驗是一段壓力很大的經歷。
# greed
- /ɡriːd/
- greed
- 貪婪
- n.
- His greed drove him to make bad decisions.
- 他的貪婪導致他做出錯誤的決定。
# history
- /ˈhɪstəri/
- his-tuh-ree
- 歷史
- n.
- It is important to learn from *history* to avoid repeating past
mistakes.
- 從歷史中學習很重要，可以避免重蹈覆轍。
# incentive
- /ɪnˈsen.tɪv/
- in-sen-tiv
- 誘因
- n.
- The government is offering *incentives* to businesses to invest in
renewable energy.
- 政府正在提供誘因鼓勵企業投資再生能源。
# intuitive
- /ɪnˈtuː.ɪ.tɪv/
- in-too-i-tiv
- 直覺
- adj.
- It was not *intuitive* to him how to solve the puzzle.
- 他直覺上不知道如何解開這個謎題。
# irony
- /ˈaɪ.rə.ni/
- ahy-ruh-nee
- 諷刺
- n.
- The *irony* of the situation is that he was trying to help but
ended up making things worse.
- 情況的諷刺之處在於，他試圖幫助，卻反而讓事情變得更糟。
# kindling
- /ˈkɪnd.lɪŋ/
- kin-dlin
- 引火物
- n.
- The *kindling* caught fire easily.
- 引火物很容易著火。
# market
- /ˈmɑː.kɪt/
- mar-kit
- 市場
- n.
- The *market* is always changing.
- 市場總是在變動。
# mentality
- /menˈtæl.ɪ.ti/
- men-tal-i-tee
- 心態
- n.
- He had a positive *mentality*.
- 他抱持積極的心態。
# moisture
- /ˈmɔɪs.tʃər/
- moy-stur
- 濕氣
- n.
- The *moisture* in the air made it feel humid.
- 空氣中的濕氣讓天氣感覺潮濕。
# opportunity
- /ˌɑː.pərˈtuː.nɪ.ti/
- op-er-too-ni-tee
- 機會
- n.
- This is a great *opportunity* to learn new skills.
- 這是學習新技能的好機會。
# opposite
- /ˈɒp.ə.zɪt/
- op-uh-zit
- 相反
- n.
- Black and white are *opposites*.
- 黑色和白色是相反的。
# optimism
- /ˈɒp.tɪ.mɪ.zəm/
- op-tuh-miz-um
- 樂觀
- n.
- His optimism was contagious.
- 他的樂觀情緒具有感染力。
# optimistic
- /ˌɒp.tɪˈmɪs.tɪk/
- op-tuh-mis-tik
- 樂觀的
- adj.
- Investors are *optimistic* about the future of the company.
- 投資者對公司的未來持樂觀態度。
# overdose
- /ˈoʊ.vər.doʊz/
- oh-ver-dohz
- 過度
- v.
- The market is *overdosing* on optimism.
- 市場對樂觀情緒過度反應。
# overwhelming
- /ˌoʊ.vərˈwɛl.mɪŋ/
- oh-ver-whel-ming
- 壓倒性的
- adj.
- The feeling of joy was *overwhelming*.
- 喜悅的感覺是壓倒性的。
# pandemic
- /pænˈdɛmɪk/
- pan-dem-ik
- 大流行
- n.
- The *pandemic* has had a profound impact on global health and
economies.
- 大流行對全球健康和經濟產生了深遠的影響。
# paranoia
- /ˌpær.əˈnɔɪ.ə/
- par-uh-noy-uh
- 偏執
- n.
- *Paranoia* can be helpful in some situations, but it can also be
debilitating.
- 偏執在某些情況下可能有所幫助，但它也可能削弱人的能力。
# potential
- /pəˈtɛn.ʃəl/
- puh-ten-shul
- 潛力
- n.
- The new project has a lot of *potential* for growth.
- 這個新項目具有很大的發展潛力。
# prolonged
- /prəˈlɔŋd/
- pro-longd
- 延續
- adj.
- The *prolonged* drought has led to a shortage of food.
- 持續的乾旱導致食物短缺。
# prospect
- /ˈprɒs.pekt/
- pro-spekt
- 前景
- n.
- The *prospects* for the economy are looking good.
- 經濟前景看好。
# recession
- /rɪˈseʃən/
- ri-sesh-uhn
- 經濟衰退
- n.
- The country is facing a severe recession.
- 這個國家正面臨嚴重的經濟衰退。
# risk
- /rɪsk/
- risk
- 風險
- n.
- I am not willing to take a lot of *risk*.
- 我不願意承擔太多風險。
# sanity
- /ˈsæn.ə.ti/
- san-i-tee
- 理智
- n.
- The market's volatility is a sign of its lack of *sanity*.
- 市場的波動性是缺乏理智的跡象。
# scar
- /skɑːr/
- skahr
- 傷疤
- n.
- The accident left a *scar* on his leg.
- 那次意外在他腿上留下了傷疤。
# scourge
- /skɜːrdʒ/
- skurj
- 禍害
- n.
- Poverty is a scourge on society.
- 貧窮是社會的禍害。
# skepticism
- /ˈskep.tɪ.sɪ.zəm/
- skep-ti-si-zem
- 懷疑
- n.
- Public *skepticism* of the government's claims led to a decline in
trust.
- 公眾對政府聲稱的懷疑導致信任度下降。
# speculation
- /ˌspek.jʊˈleɪ.ʃən/
- spek-yoo-lay-shun
- 推測
- n.
- The stock price is based on pure *speculation*.
- 股價是基於純粹的推測。
# stability
- /stəˈbɪlɪti/
- stuh-bil-i-tee
- 穩定
- n.
- The economy's *stability* is essential for a healthy market.
- 經濟的穩定對於健康的市場至關重要。
# success
- /səkˈses/
- suh-kess
- 成功
- n.
- The project was a huge *success*.
- 這個專案非常成功。
# toll
- /toʊl/
- tohl
- 代價
- n.
- The hurricane took a heavy *toll* on the coastal communities.
- 颶風給沿海社區帶來了沉重的代價。
# unprecedented
- /ʌnˈpresɪdəntid/
- uhn-pres-uh-den-tid
- 前所未有
- adj.
- The recent pandemic has led to an *unprecedented* number of job
losses.
- 最近的疫情導致了前所未有的失業潮。
# valuation
- /ˌvæl.juˈeɪ.ʃən/
- val-yoo-ay-shun
- 估值
- n.
- The *valuation* of a company can be affected by many factors.
- 公司的估值會受到許多因素的影響。
# vegetation
- /ˌvedʒ.ɪˈteɪ.ʃən/
- vej-i-tay-shun
- 植被
- n.
- The *vegetation* in the forest was lush and green.
- 森林裡的植被茂盛而翠綠。
# wildfires
- /ˈwaɪld.faɪərz/
- wild-fahyrz
- 野火
- n.
- The *wildfires* caused significant damage.
- 野火造成了重大損失。
-
根據明斯基的理論，當經濟體經歷長時間的穩定狀態時，人們會變得越來越樂觀，承擔更多債務並推動進一步的成長。
- According to Minsky, when an economy experiences extended periods
of stability, individuals become increasingly optimistic, taking on
more debt and fueling further growth.
-
為了了解市場潛力的全部程度，我們必須超越邏輯的數字界限，挑戰投資者對這些數字的信念。
- In order to understand the full extent of market potential, we
must push beyond logical numerical boundaries and challenge investor
beliefs about those figures.
- 投資者僅僅在尋找同儕信念和投資意願的極限。
- Investors are merely seeking the limits of their peers' beliefs
and willingness to invest.
-
市場往往偏離理性界限，表現出過度的悲觀和樂觀，這是由於其固有本性而不可避免的。
- Markets tend to deviate from rational boundaries, exhibiting
excessive pessimism and optimism, which are inevitable due to their
inherent nature.
-
作者最後總結指出，樂觀和悲觀天生就會超過合理的界限，這是由人類探索可能性極限的慾望所驅使。
- The author concludes by suggesting that optimism and pessimism
inherently overshoot reasonable boundaries, driven by a human desire
to explore the limits of possibility.
-
作者將這種現象與海曼·明斯基的金融不穩定假說聯繫起來，該假說認為穩定本身就是不穩定的。
- The author connects this phenomenon to Hyman Minsky's financial
instability hypothesis, which posits that stability itself is
destabilizing.
-
作者將其與「對立轉化」（enantiodromia）現象相提並論，這是一種榮格理論，認為過度的某種東西會導致其相反的產生。
- The author draws a parallel to the phenomenon of "enantiodromia",
a Jungian theory suggesting that an excess of something can give
rise to its opposite.
- 作者指出，20
世紀預防大流行的成功導致了自滿，並相信傳染病已成為過去，讓我們對全球大流行的現實毫無準備。
- The author suggests that the success in preventing pandemics in
the 20th century led to complacency and a belief that infectious
diseases were a thing of the past, leaving us unprepared for the
reality of a global pandemic.
-
本章探討了「平靜種下瘋狂的種子」的概念，認為對穩定和安全的認知會導致風險行為，最終導致不穩定。
- The chapter explores the concept of "calm planting the seeds of
crazy", arguing that a perception of stability and safety can lead
to risky behavior and ultimately instability.
-
這個概念是透過金融市場的鏡頭呈現的，在金融市場中，長時間的繁榮和股價將繼續上漲的信念會鼓勵過度借貸和投資，將估值推向不可持續的水平。
- This concept is presented through the lens of financial markets,
where prolonged prosperity and a belief that stock prices will
continue to rise can encourage excessive borrowing and investment,
pushing valuations to unsustainable levels.
-
這種在自然界和人類努力中顯而易見的循環模式，突顯了認識到平靜時期往往包含意外和潛在災難性結果的潛力。
- This cyclical pattern, evident in nature and human endeavors,
underscores the importance of acknowledging that periods of calm
often contain the potential for unexpected and potentially
disastrous outcomes.
-
雖然反覆有人聲稱市場由於過度投機或脫離基本面而失靈，但這一直都是事實。
- While there are recurring claims that markets are dysfunctional
due to excessive speculation or detachment from fundamentals, this
has always been the case.
# 根據明斯基的說法，在長時間的經濟穩定期間會發生什麼？
# According to Minsky, what happens during extended periods of
economic stability?
→ 個人會變得越來越樂觀，承擔更多債務，進一步推動經濟增長。
→ Individuals become increasingly optimistic, taking on more debt
and fueling further growth.
# 傳染病的減少如何造成脆弱性？
# How can the decline in infectious diseases create vulnerability?
→ 它創造了一種心理脆弱性，容易受到無法預測的大流行的影響。
→ It has created a psychological vulnerability to the
unpredictable nature of pandemics.
# 我們如何理解市場潛力的全部範圍？
# How can we understand the full extent of market potential?
→ 通過突破邏輯的數字界限，挑戰投資者對這些數字的信念。
→ By pushing beyond logical numerical boundaries and challenging
investor beliefs about those figures.
# 這個概念如何應用於金融市場？
# How is this concept applied to financial markets?
→
長期的繁榮和股價將繼續上漲的信念可能會鼓勵過度借貸和投資，將估值推向不可持續的水平。
→ Prolonged prosperity and a belief that stock prices will
continue to rise can encourage excessive borrowing and investment,
pushing valuations to unsustainable levels.
# 影響市場行為的一些因素有哪些？
# What are some factors that influence market behavior?
→ 市場情緒、投資者情緒、信念和有說服力的敘述。
→ Market sentiment, investor emotions, beliefs, and persuasive
narratives.
# 市場通過突破其極限測試什麼？
# What do markets test by pushing their limits?
→ 投資者的容忍度和風險偏好。
→ Investor tolerance and risk appetite.
# 什麼是 "逆反心理"？
# What is "enantiodromia"?
→ 榮格理論認為，某事物的過度會導致其相反。
→ A Jungian theory that suggests an excess of something can lead
to its opposite.
# 什麼是海曼·明斯基的金融不穩定假設？
# What is Hyman Minsky's financial instability hypothesis?
→ 它認為穩定本身是造成不穩定的因素。
→ It posits that stability itself is destabilizing.
# 沒有經濟衰退的後果是什麼？
# What is a consequence of the absence of recessions?
→ 它會造成一種虛假的安全感，導致自滿和魯莽的行為。
→ It can create a false sense of security, leading to complacency
and reckless behavior.
# 個人投資者可以接受的策略是什麼？
# What is an acceptable strategy for individual investors?
→ 承認想要的風險水平，並被動觀察市場動態。
→ Acknowledging a desired level of risk and passively observing
market dynamics.
# 什麼是必須承認的？
# What is essential to acknowledge?
→
經濟和社會體系的循環性，以及認識到平靜時期可能孕育著未來動盪的種子。
→ The cyclical nature of economic and social systems and recognize
that periods of calmness can harbor the seeds of future turmoil.
# 接受市場波動的一種方法是什麼？
# What is one approach to accepting market fluctuations?
→ 認識到非理性是市場行為的內在特徵。
→ Recognizing that irrationality is inherent to market behavior.
# 作者關於沒有經濟衰退的論點是什麼？
# What is the author's argument regarding the absence of recessions?
→ 這可以歸因於過去一個世紀傳染病的顯著下降。
→ It can be attributed to the significant decline in infectious
diseases over the past century.
# 作者對他童年和現在的對比的反思是什麼？
# What is the author's reflection on the contrast between his
childhood and the present?
→ 他認為，如果 1920 年爆發
COVID-19，它只會成為歷史上的一个小註腳，但它在 2020
年的出現，在一個相對平靜的時期，卻給人們留下了對病毒風險的不可磨滅的印記。
→ He posits that if COVID-19 had struck in 1920, it would have
been a mere footnote in history, but its arrival in 2020, amid a
period of relative calm, has left an indelible mark on perceptions
of viral risk.
# 確定市場峰值的難題是什麼？
# What is the challenge in determining market peaks?
→
很難預測市場行為，這就像預測自己多年後的感受一樣，因為敘事不斷發展且不可預測。
→ It is difficult to predict market behavior, which is akin to
predicting one's mood years in the future, as narratives are
constantly evolving and unpredictable.
# “平靜播下瘋狂的種子”的概念是什麼？
# What is the concept of "calm planting the seeds of crazy"?
→ 它認為，對穩定和安全的看法可能會導致風險行為，最終導致不穩定。
→ It argues that a perception of stability and safety can lead to
risky behavior and ultimately instability.
# 市場的內在特性是什麼，它會導致過度的悲觀和樂觀？
# What is the inherent nature of markets that can lead to excessive
pessimism and optimism?
→ 市場往往偏離理性的界限。
→ Markets tend to deviate from rational boundaries.
# “平靜播下瘋狂的種子”這句話強調了什麼諷刺？
# What is the irony highlighted by the phrase "calm planting the
seeds of crazy"?
→ 成功可能會導致自滿和脆弱，可能導致意想不到的問題。
→ Success can lead to complacency and vulnerability, potentially
causing unexpected problems.
# 本章的主要結論是什麼？
# What is the main conclusion of the chapter?
→
穩定感的錯覺可能會導致人們對潛在風險的危險漠視，以及缺乏對不可避免的破壞的準備。
→ The illusion of stability can lead to a dangerous disregard for
potential risks and a lack of preparedness for inevitable
disruptions.
# 理解市場波動的第二種方法是什麼？
# What is the second approach to understanding market fluctuations?
→ 認識到一致性的力量，並擁抱適度的回報。
→ Recognizing the power of consistency and embracing moderate
returns.
# 每年 15% 的複利在 50 年後的意義何在？
# What is the significance of compounding at a modest 15% per year
over 50 years?
→ 它能產生顯著的成果。
→ It can yield significant results.
# 為什麼經濟和市場週期中常出現繁榮和蕭條、泡沫和崩盤？
# Why are booms and busts, bubbles and crashes common in economic
and market cycles?
→
因為投資者被探索潛在獲利機會的渴望所驅使，常常導致過度擴張和超出限制。
→ Because investors are driven by the desire to explore
opportunities for potential gains, often leading to overextending
and exceeding limits.